Weather Updates related to Hurricance Florence

Date: September 11, 2018

 

 

 

 

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Update 9/13/2018 _ 1:30 P.M.

11:00 A.M. NOAA briefing

 

Update 9/12/2018 _ 2:45 P.M.

11:30 A.M. NOAA briefing

 

Update 9/12/2018 _ 7:30 A.M.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early
Thursday.  Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North
Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is forecast through Wednesday. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft

North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week.  This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area on Friday.  Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

Forecaster Pasch

 

Update 9/11/2018 _ 12:39 P.M.

NWS Wakefield PDF presentation Update. Click here.

From: NWS Wakefield SKYWARN
Sent: Tuesday, September 11, 2018 6:30 AM
Subject: NWS Wakefield Hurricane Florence Briefing - 6 AM EDT 9/11

Attached is our latest briefing for Hurricane Florence. Here are the key takeaways:

-Hurricane Watches and Storm Surge Watches have been issued up to the VA/NC border. 

-Increasing threat of tropical storm conditions across the local area.

-Damaging hurricane force winds are becoming more likely along the North Carolina coast. 

-Based on the latest forecast, impacts from tropical storm force winds could start as early as late Wednesday. 

-Confidence is increasing that Florence will slow considerably or stall, leading to a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event. 

-Life threatening storm surge is possible if the storm continues on the current forecast track.

-Large swells will continue this week, these swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip currents. 

-Uncertainties still exist: Changes in the forecast track will greatly change the impacts felt across the local area – Continue to monitor the latest forecast from NWS Wakefield and the National Hurricane Center.

Please don't hesitate to contact us with any questions or concerns. The next briefing will be provided by 6 PM EDT Tuesday.

Thanks,

NWS Wakefield, VA

 

Update 9/11/2018 _ 7:32 A.M.

BULLETIN 9/10/2018 11P.M. ADVISORY
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS......HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 62.4W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence.  Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are likely be issued for portions of these areas on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 62.4 West.  Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A west- northwestward to northwestward motion and an increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
Forecaster Beven